Estimating the cause-specific relative risks of non-optimal temperature on daily mortality: a two-part modelling approach applied to the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Associations between high and low temperatures and increases in mortality and morbidity have been previously reported, yet no comprehensive assessment of disease burden has been done. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the global and regional burden due to non-optimal temperature exposure. METHODS: In part 1 of this study, we linked deaths to daily temperature estimates from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. We modelled the cause-specific relative risks for 176 individual causes of death along daily temperature and 23 mean temperature zones using a two-dimensional spline within a Bayesian meta-regression framework. We then calculated the cause-specific and total temperature-attributable burden for the countries for which daily mortality data were available. In part 2, we applied cause-specific relative risks from part 1 to all locations globally. We combined exposure-response curves with daily gridded temperature and calculated the cause-specific burden based on the underlying burden of disease from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, for the years 1990-2019. Uncertainty from all components of the modelling chain, including risks, temperature exposure, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, defined as the temperature of minimum mortality across all included causes, was propagated using posterior simulation of 1000 draws. FINDINGS: We included 64·9 million individual International Classification of Diseases-coded deaths from nine different countries, occurring between Jan 1, 1980, and Dec 31, 2016. 17 causes of death met the inclusion criteria. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, lower respiratory infection, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease showed J-shaped relationships with daily temperature, whereas the risk of external causes (eg, homicide, suicide, drowning, and related to disasters, mechanical, transport, and other unintentional injuries) increased monotonically with temperature. The theoretical minimum risk exposure levels varied by location and year as a function of the underlying cause of death composition. Estimates for non-optimal temperature ranged from 7·98 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 7·10-8·85) per 100 000 and a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 1·2% (1·1-1·4) in Brazil to 35·1 deaths (29·9-40·3) per 100 000 and a PAF of 4·7% (4·3-5·1) in China. In 2019, the average cold-attributable mortality exceeded heat-attributable mortality in all countries for which data were available. Cold effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 4·3% (3·9-4·7) and attributable rates of 32·0 deaths (27·2-36·8) per 100 000 and in New Zealand with 3·4% (2·9-3·9) and 26·4 deaths (22·1-30·2). Heat effects were most pronounced in China with PAFs of 0·4% (0·3-0·6) and attributable rates of 3·25 deaths (2·39-4·24) per 100 000 and in Brazil with 0·4% (0·3-0·5) and 2·71 deaths (2·15-3·37). When applying our framework to all countries globally, we estimated that 1·69 million (1·52-1·83) deaths were attributable to non-optimal temperature globally in 2019. The highest heat-attributable burdens were observed in south and southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa and the Middle East, and the highest cold-attributable burdens in eastern and central Europe, and central Asia. INTERPRETATION: Acute heat and cold exposure can increase or decrease the risk of mortality for a diverse set of causes of death. Although in most regions cold effects dominate, locations with high prevailing temperatures can exhibit substantial heat effects far exceeding cold-attributable burden. Particularly, a high burden of external causes of death contributed to strong heat impacts, but cardiorespiratory diseases and metabolic diseases could also be substantial contributors. Changes in both exposures and the composition of causes of death drove changes in risk over time. Steady increases in exposure to the risk of high temperature are of increasing concern for health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Alcohol Use and the Risk of Communicable Diseases.

The body of knowledge on alcohol use and communicable diseases has been growing in recent years. Using a narrative review approach, this paper discusses alcohol's role in the acquisition of and treatment outcomes from four different communicable diseases: these include three conditions included in comparative risk assessments to date-Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB), and lower respiratory infections/pneumonia-as well as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) because of its recent and rapid ascension as a global health concern. Alcohol-attributable TB, HIV, and pneumonia combined were responsible for approximately 360,000 deaths and 13 million disability-adjusted life years lost (DALYs) in 2016, with alcohol-attributable TB deaths and DALYs predominating. There is strong evidence that alcohol is associated with increased incidence of and poorer treatment outcomes from HIV, TB, and pneumonia, via both behavioral and biological mechanisms. Preliminary studies suggest that heavy drinkers and those with alcohol use disorders are at increased risk of COVID-19 infection and severe illness. Aside from HIV research, limited research exists that can guide interventions for addressing alcohol-attributable TB and pneumonia or COVID-19. Implementation of effective individual-level interventions and alcohol control policies as a means of reducing the burden of communicable diseases is recommended.

Similarities and differences between HIV and SARS-CoV-2.

In the last 50 years we have experienced two big pandemics, the HIV pandemic and the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2. Both pandemics are caused by RNA viruses and have reached us from animals. These two viruses are different in the transmission mode and in the symptoms they generate. However, they have important similarities: the fear in the population, increase in proinflammatory cytokines that generate intestinal microbiota modifications or NETosis production by polymorphonuclear neutrophils, among others. They have been implicated in the clinical, prognostic and therapeutic attitudes.

Early epidemiological indicators, outcomes, and interventions of COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), a pandemic that brought the whole world to a standstill, has led to financial and health care burden. We aimed to evaluate epidemiological characteristics, needs of resources, outcomes, and global burden of the disease. METHODS: Systematic review was performed searching PubMed from December 1, 2019, to March 25, 2020, for full-text observational studies that described epidemiological characteristics, following MOOSE protocol. Global data were collected from the JHU-Corona Virus Resource Center, WHO-COVID-2019 situation reports, KFF.org, and Worldometers.info until March 31, 2020. The prevalence percentages were calculated. The global data were plotted in excel to calculate case fatality rate (CFR), predicted CFR, COVID-19 specific mortality rate, and doubling time for cases and deaths. CFR was predicted using Pearson correlation, regression models, and coefficient of determination. RESULTS: From 21 studies of 2747 patients, 8.4% of patients died, 20.4% recovered, 15.4% were admitted to ICU and 14.9% required ventilation. COVID-19 was more prevalent in patients with hypertension (19.3%), smoking (11.3%), diabetes mellitus (10%), and cardiovascular diseases (7.4%). Common complications were pneumonia (82%), cardiac complications (26.4%), acute respiratory distress syndrome (15.7%), secondary infection (11.2%), and septic shock (4.3%). Though CFR and COVID-19 specific death rates are dynamic, they were consistently high for Italy, Spain, and Iran. Polynomial growth models were best fit for all countries for predicting CFR. Though many interventions have been implemented, stern measures like nationwide lockdown and school closure occurred after very high infection rates (>10cases per 100 000population) prevailed. Given the trend of government measures and decline of new cases in China and South Korea, most countries will reach the peak between April 1-20, if interventions are followed. CONCLUSIONS: A collective approach undertaken by a responsible government, wise strategy implementation and a receptive population may help contain the spread of COVID-19 outbreak. Close monitoring of predictive models of such indicators in the highly affected countries would help to evaluate the potential fatality if the second wave of pandemic occurs. The future studies should be focused on identifying accurate indicators to mitigate the effect of underestimation or overestimation of COVID-19 burden.

The Era of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A Review on Dynamics, Clinical Symptoms and Complications, Diagnosis, and Treatment.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) displays a broad spectrum of clinical presentations ranging from lack of symptoms to severe multiorgan system complications and death. Various laboratory assays have been employed in the diagnosis of COVID-19, including: nucleic acid-based tests; antigen tests; and serum testing for anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies. The disease can also be diagnosed based on suggestive clinical features and radiological findings. Until now, remdesivir is the only medication approved for the treatment of COVID-19 by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA); however, it is anticipated that several anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies will gain soon approval. Other methods of treatment include supportive care directed toward treating the symptoms. Nevertheless, many studies have recently emerged, showing controversial preliminary results with the off-label medication hydroxychloroquine. Given that all results are still preliminary, including those seen by remdesivir, additional evidence and research are required to identify effective medications that are broadly effective and well tolerated. Importantly, two RNA-based vaccines have recently gained approval from Pfizer and Moderna, with many others still in clinical trials. This article reviews various aspects of COVID-19, including its epidemiology; its evolution and mutational spectrum; and its clinical dynamics, symptoms and complications, diagnosis, and treatment.

A Closer Look Into Global Hospital Beds Capacity and Resource Shortages During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, there is a question of whether hospitals have adequate resources to manage patients. We aim to investigate global hospital bed (HB), acute care bed (ACB), and intensive care unit (ICU) bed capacity and determine any correlation between these hospital resources and COVID-19 mortality. METHOD: Cross-sectional study utilizing data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and other official organizations regarding global HB, ACB, ICU bed capacity, and confirmed COVID-19 cases/mortality. Descriptive statistics and linear regression were performed. RESULTS: A total of 183 countries were included with a mean of 307.1 HBs, 413.9 ACBs, and 8.73 ICU beds/100,000 population. High-income regions had the highest mean number of ICU beds (12.79) and HBs (402.32) per 100,000 population whereas upper middle-income regions had the highest mean number of ACBs (424.75) per 100,000. A weakly positive significant association was discovered between the number of ICU beds/100,000 population and COVID-19 mortality. No significant associations exist between the number of HBs or ACBs per 100,000 population and COVID-19 mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Global COVID-19 mortality rates are likely affected by multiple factors, including hospital resources, personnel, and bed capacity. Higher income regions of the world have greater ICU, acute care, and hospital bed capacities. Mandatory reporting of ICU, acute care, and hospital bed capacity/occupancy and information relating to coronavirus should be implemented. Adopting a tiered critical care approach and targeting the expansion of space, staff, and supplies may serve to maximize the quality of care during resurgences and future disasters.

Incidence and outcomes of healthcare-associated COVID-19 infections: significance of delayed diagnosis and correlation with staff absence.

BACKGROUND: The sudden increase in COVID-19 admissions in hospitals during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic of 2020 led to onward transmissions among vulnerable inpatients. AIMS: This study was performed to evaluate the prevalence and clinical outcomes of healthcare-associated COVID-19 infections (HA-COVID-19) during the 2020 epidemic and study factors which may promote or correlate with its incidence and transmission in a Teaching Hospital NHS Trust in London, UK. METHODS: Electronic laboratory, patient and staff self-reported sickness records were interrogated from 1st March to 18th April 2020. HA-COVID-19 was defined as COVID-19 with symptom onset within >14 days of admission. Test performance of a single combined throat and nose swab (CTNS) for patient placement was calculated. The effect of delayed RNA positivity (DRP, defined as >48 h delay), staff self-reported COVID-19 sickness absence, hospital bed occupancy, and community incidence of COVID-19 was compared for HA-COVID-19. The incidence of other significant hospital-acquired bacterial infections (HAB) was compared with previous years. RESULTS: Fifty-eight HA-COVID-19 (7.1%) cases were identified. When compared with community-acquired admitted cases (CA-COVID-19), significant differences were observed in age (P=0.018), ethnicity (P<0.001) and comorbidity burden (P<0.001) but not in 30-day mortality. CTNS-negative predictive value was 60.3%. DRP was associated with greater mortality (P=0.034) and incidence of HA-COVID-19 correlated positively with DRP (R = 0.7108) and staff sickness absence (R = 0.7815). For the study period HAB rates were similar to the previous 2 years. CONCLUSIONS: Early diagnosis and isolation of COVID-19 patients would help to reduce transmission. A single CTNS has limited value in segregating patients into positive and negative pathways.

Strategies for radiology departments in handling the COVID-19 pandemic.

The world is facing an unprecedented global pandemic in the form of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which has ravaged all aspects of life, especially health systems. Radiology services, in particular, are under threat of being overwhelmed by the sheer number of patients affected, unless drastic efforts are taken to contain and mitigate the spread of the virus. Proactive measures, therefore, must be taken to ensure the continuation of diagnostic and interventional support to clinicians, while minimizing the risk of nosocomial transmission among staff and other patients. This article aims to highlight several strategies to improve preparedness, readiness and response towards this pandemic, specific to the radiology department.